Report: industrial property outperforms commercial real estate

Despite the growing uncertainty around Brexit, the research shows occupiers were active during 2018; although overall take-up was 4% down on a five-year average, it was only slightly below 2017’s total. 

The logistics segment had UK take-up in units above 100,000 sq ft falling just short of 2016’s record high. It was, however, a different picture at the smaller end of the market. Despite an increase in supply, mid box (50,000 sq ft to 99,999 sq ft) take-up was the worst in nine years after a record year in 2017. The result raises questions about whether the new supply is meeting occupier needs on location and specification.

The report by LSH expects 11.7 million sq ft of speculative development to come forward in 2019, which will go some way towards restoring choice at the larger end of the market. However, the current boom in speculative development is heavily weighted to the logistics sector.

The development response at the smaller end of the market has remained elusive in this cycle, and there is a danger that the critical lack of supply of quality medium-sized and small properties will continue, despite robust levels of demand.

Strong overall results also hide a striking difference in performance between UK regions. Take-up in East Midlands hit a record 14.6 million sq ft, and big box logistics take-up increased 93%. In contrast, take-up in the West Midlands was low.

The threat of a no-deal Brexit has resulted in a cautious start to 2019, but if this is avoided, demand could be released with a rebound in activity. Logistics occupiers are likely to take more space as eCommerce continues to grow, though as the sector is heavily reliant on an EU workforce, it could be affected by a growing labour shortage over the coming years.

James Polson, National Head of Industrial and Logistics at LSH, commented: “The hive of activity across the industrial and logistics sector continues unabated. The driver remains the UK’s evolving eCommerce sector, with investors and occupiers alike clamouring for stock.”