A bit of how’s your grandfather

He’s an experienced negotiator of trade agreements, and says they tend to be slow, unsentimental and he tends to take a pessimistic view of the motivations of those engaged in them.

Among his more positive suggestions were that the UK should informally harmonise with the EU in terms of customs, tariffs, rules and regulations. This includes grandfathering. No, this isn’t taking an aged relative to the races for a cheeky bet and a pint of stout, it’s when trade agreements lapse and we act like they haven’t and continue as normal. The UK has trade deals via the EU with 50-odd nations. These will all become void when the UK leaves, but with grandfathering there would be an informal arrangement where trade continues as usual until both sides agree otherwise. Rollo thinks this would be great for the UK, but isn’t so sure all other countries will be up for it. Put yourself in the shoes of the Koreans, for example, they might not be willing to concede the same measures to the UK as they conceded in concluding a trade deal with the EU as a whole.

He also discussed the red lines that both sides have drawn up in the discussions, seeing, on paper, very little room for compromise. Basically, if a no-deal stalemate is to be avoided, either the UK or the EU is going to have to concede things it has said it will not concede. Who will blink first in this game of bluff?

For me, it is probable it will be the UK, it’s smaller and more exposed to the EU than vice versa, but there is plenty of opinion out there backing the UK to pull it off. There is a perception that the EU is a bit soft and bloated and that the UK will be too nimble and sharp elbowed for it. Indeed I spoke to a logistics professional a while back, not a Leave voter, but someone who was scathing of the way the EU has been run over recent years, and who suggested ‘we should be able to run rings around that lot’.

I just hope common sense prevails and a compromise is reached that spares either side crippling cost or too abject a humiliation. Too much to hope for? We’ll see…