Ocean freight reliability ‘collapsed in 2025’
Analysis of ocean freight shipments shows a sharp deterioration in schedule reliability, with on-time delivery rates, defined as arrivals within 12 hours of the estimated time of arrival, falling year-on-year from 36% to 13.9%.
THE ANALYSIS was carried out by supply chain software platform Beacon, analysing 27,613 ocean freight shipments spanning 2024 and 2025.
At the same time, the proportion of shipments arriving three or more days late rose from 18.1% to 47.4%.
For supply chain professionals operating just-in-time inventory models, this decline represents a fundamental shift in risk. What was once a manageable level of variability increasingly became the difference between meeting customer commitments and scrambling for alternative supply options.
Quarter-by-quarter analysis shows that ocean freight ETA reliability eroded throughout 2025. In the first quarter of 2024, 45.2% of shipments arrived on time, a figure that dropped to 12.5% in the first quarter of 2025. The second quarter followed the same pattern, with on-time performance declining from 37.3% in 2024 to 11.7% in 2025. The third quarter fell from 37.7% to 14.7%, while the fourth quarter, traditionally affected by peak season congestion, saw on-time rates decrease from 30% to 16.9%.
Beacon CEO and co-founder Fraser Robinson said: “When supply chain leaders began planning their 2025 shipments, most were working with assumptions built on 2024 performance data. By mid-year, those assumptions had become a liability. What’s clear from the data is that 2025 represented a significant departure from 2024 norms. Whether this represents a temporary disruption or a new baseline remains to be seen.”
