THE REPORT, produced with New York University’s Stern School of Business, found that AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025. That share rose to 76% in the first quarter of 2026.

John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express, said: “The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs. Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics.”

The outlook has improved. Global goods trade is forecast to grow by an average of 3.4% a year until 2029, against 2.7% over the previous decade.

East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest growth, with the value of its trade up 24% in the first five months of 2026. Europe followed on 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa on 11%.

The impact of US tariffs was limited. The US accounts for only 13% of world imports, and roughly half of those were exempt from the increases as of August 2026. The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted trade routes, but the effects were concentrated: the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates.

US–China trade fell from 3.5% of global trade at its 2015 peak to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026. However, the report says goods imported into the US from other countries increasingly contain Chinese materials, so American reliance on China declined only slightly through 2024.

Overall globalisation reached a record 25.8% in 2025 on the report’s scale, which runs from 0% to 100%.

The report advises companies to prepare for disruption without giving up the benefits of international engagement, balancing resilience against global reach when considering moves such as relocating production.