ACCORDING TO new market data from e-commerce and supply chain service provider Arvato, major fashion brands process over 35% of their total annual volume during the final three months of the year. On peak days around Black Friday, daily order volumes surge to between 3.3 and 7 times normal levels. The numbers show that success during this busiest sales period is decided long before November, when inventory planning, operational agility, and returns management must seamlessly align.

From shrinking shopping carts to 700% volume spikes
In the fashion sector, a massive portion of annual revenue is concentrated in the autumn. Arvato’s data highlights how dramatically pressure builds in fulfilment centres during this period:

• One-third of annual revenue in three months: Major fashion brands process over 35% of their total annual volume in the fourth quarter. During the final two months of the year, dedicated distribution centres handle 1.5 to 2 times their usual daily volumes.
• Explosive promotional days: While targeted sales events like membership days generate daily volume increases of 140% to 160% throughout the year, orders around Black Friday surge to 3.3 to nearly 7 times normal daily levels.
• Smaller shopping carts, significantly more orders: Total order numbers rise sharply from September onward, but consumers order fewer items per checkout. For logistics, this means packing and shipping more individual parcels for the exact same garment count.

The challenge doesn’t end at shipping: the return wave follows
To meet surging demand and support promotional events, fashion brands build up warehouse inventory starting in spring. However, the true success of a peak season becomes visible after the sales and holiday rush.

Return rates in fashion average between 25% and 35% of sales volume. The surge in returns typically sets in about two weeks after a sales peak. Because many brands extend their return windows from 30 to 60 days over the holiday period, returns processing remains elevated well into February. To prevent returned items from depreciating, they must be inspected, refurbished, and restored to saleable inventory rapidly. High-quality and swift return processing directly determines overall profitability.

Operational agility as the key to success
“No peak season is exactly the same as the previous one. New sales channels, different marketing campaigns, and shifting consumer habits bring new challenges every year. As a result, peak performance cannot simply be bought with additional capacity or technology investments,” says David Bailey, consumer products director, Arvato UK. “Automation provides speed and frees colleagues from repetitive or physically demanding tasks, but quality checks, sizing inspection, and rapid return processing continue to depend on human experience and flexibility on the warehouse floor. Only when inventory, capacity, and returns are fully aligned before the rush begins does the year’s busiest period transform from a stress test into a streamlined operation. For fashion brands, peak season is often the most important commercial period of the year. For logistics teams, it’s the opportunity to turn planning into results. Helping brands capitalise on demand peaks while maintaining a seamless customer experience is exactly what makes this time of year so exciting.”