THE US scrapped its own de minimis exemption last year, and from 1 July the EU follows, dropping its €150 customs duty exemption in favour of a two-year €3 duty charged on each individual item rather than the shipment as a whole. Britain has set no equivalent measure, leaving its £135 threshold duty-free until 2029, and the risk is that it becomes a dumping ground for the goods its neighbours have just turned away.

This diversion is not a forecast, it is already showing up in the numbers. Across the first four months of 2026, Chinese customs data shows that exports to the US fell 10.2%. Over the same period, exports to the EU rose 19% and to the UK, they rose 15.9%, presenting the clearest sign yet that closing a market redirects the flow of trade rather than stopping it.

For supply chains moving these goods, the real challenge is less the duty itself, and more the operational complexity behind its introduction. A €3 charge on every item is enough to erase the margin on products that sell for a few euros, so sellers are rebuilding distribution networks and taking on new trading partners to stay viable. Each territory they enter brings with it its own customs regime, and a parcel that once cleared on a single simplified entry now needs a full declaration with a commodity code and a duty calculation per item. Every additional warehouse and jurisdiction adds another layer for supply chain operators to manage, and another opportunity for delays, disruptions and rising costs.

The more a network spreads, the more fragmented it gets which shifts risk away from the movement of goods and towards the movement of information about them. When trading partners run incompatible systems, organisations resort to emails, spreadsheets and other manual workarounds to keep trade running at the very moment that coordination matters most which raises the risk of fraud, regulatory failure or cybersecurity data breaches. The danger is physical as much as digital, since a blind spot at the border is where theft takes hold once no one can see where goods actually are.

The businesses that navigate regulatory changes and trade exposure like this aren’t always those with the biggest footprint. They are often those that prioritise interoperable, trusted data sharing between partners and service providers that can adapt quickly as rules, disruptions or delays hit them with force or speed. Where a shared operational view is missing, these failures compound quickly which end up with slower deliveries, higher prices and risks that go beyond importing parcels and customs costs.

Ronald Kleijwegt, CEO of global logistics network Vinturas